More info to throw into the mix...
Derby categorizing
This won't be a subtle approach toward the contenders, which will leave plenty of opportunities to be wrong. The three-year-olds are listed alphabetically in each category.
Rosy outlook
BORREGO - Improving colt has earned triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings from his last three starts and finished full of run in the Arkansas Derby (G2), recording a 106 Late Pace figure.
LION HEART - Showed a lot of heart finishing a game second in Blue Grass S. (G1), earning a terrific 114 BRIS Speed figure, and figures to be much more fit off that performance. Wire-to-wire threat.
MASTER DAVID - Had to need Wood Memorial (G1) off a 62-day layoff and turned in commendable performance to finish second. Expect him to move forward in the Kentucky Derby for Bobby Frankel.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - Trainer Nick Zito saddled Strike the Gold to a resounding victory in the 1991 Blue Grass (G1) and then captured the Kentucky Derby three weeks later. Strike the Gold wasn't a world-beater either, dropping his next 12 starts, so Zito knows how to get a three-year-old to peak for two straight races at this time of the year. A two-time stakes winner at Churchill Downs, The Cliff's Edge enters the Derby on the upswing.
Fringe candidates
CASTLEDALE - Smallish colt was a game winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in only his second dirt start and will be running late at Churchill.
IMPERIALISM -Caught on the rail through the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby, the gray colt does his best running on the outside and will be kept wide for the stretch run in the Kentucky Derby. He moved way up when transferred to the care of Kristin Mulhall over the winter, but 1 1/4 miles doesn't look promising with his pedigree.
POLLARD'S VISION - Wouldn't leave him out of the exotics, but the improving colt will be seriously tested for class and won't get the easy early lead he enjoyed in the Illinois Derby (G2).
SMARTY JONES - He's done everything right so far, dominating his competition in last two Arkansas starts with a dazzling turn of foot, but 10 furlongs represents a major obstacle for the Pennsylvania-bred colt. Could still envision a scenario where he makes the lead at the top of the stretch and holds on, but Smarty Jones is more likely to taste defeat for the first time.
Traditionalist nightmare
FRIENDS LAKE - Unproven colt wins the Florida Derby in a slow time and trains up to the Kentucky Derby - brilliant strategy for finishing up the track.
MINISTER ERIC - Been knocking heads with entry-level allowance foes and finally broke through with a win last time at Keeneland. Quality isn't the only concern with his 4.14 dosage.
READ THE FOOTNOTES - Won't be fit enough. Fitness equates to races, not workouts, and the idea of training a young three-year-old into a 1 1/4-mile dirt race against 19 challengers off a seven-week rest is preposterous. Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed would have all probably lost the Kentucky Derby without an April prep race.
SONG OF THE SWORD - Didn't finish strongly in both the Lexington S. (G2) and Illinois Derby, suggesting he won't advance at longer distances, and the unraced at two-year-old has been pushed hard to make the race. Don't look for his best in his third start in six weeks.
TAPIT - Mad genius or not, Tapit will not win the Kentucky Derby. Eighty-five years and counting since the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby with less than five career starts and the gray colt has had only one true performance in 2004, a huge effort in the Wood. He was recuperating from a lung problem going into the race and it had to take a lot out of him. With little bottom, he's not moving forward at 1 1/4 miles. At least we won't have to see Michael Dickinson grandstanding afterward that he only hoped to finish third and didn't have Tapit at his best yet.
WIMBLEDON - Makes this category based on dosage (5.00). Despite that number, it's difficult to make a case for him off a poor showing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Looked better at two
ACTION THIS DAY - Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) hero has not gone on at three and reportedly exited the Blue Grass with a sore back.
BIRDSTONE - With his pedigree, a Future Bet would've been ideal following his superb victory in the Champagne S. (G1). This year has been a nightmare, however, with a terrible performance in the Lane's End (G2) and subsequent withdrawal from the Blue Grass due to an elevated white blood cell count.
Pretenders
LIMEHOUSE - He owns plenty of quality for middle distances.
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH - Lexington was not in this colt's plans until an unplaced finish in the Santa Anita Derby, and he got a dream trip on a soft pace against a less-than-stellar group of rivals. Won't last 10 furlongs at Churchill.
Stay home
ST AVERIL - Failed miserably in Santa Anita Derby. Why risk the future of a nice colt with bad feet in such a demanding race?
Derby categorizing
This won't be a subtle approach toward the contenders, which will leave plenty of opportunities to be wrong. The three-year-olds are listed alphabetically in each category.
Rosy outlook
BORREGO - Improving colt has earned triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings from his last three starts and finished full of run in the Arkansas Derby (G2), recording a 106 Late Pace figure.
LION HEART - Showed a lot of heart finishing a game second in Blue Grass S. (G1), earning a terrific 114 BRIS Speed figure, and figures to be much more fit off that performance. Wire-to-wire threat.
MASTER DAVID - Had to need Wood Memorial (G1) off a 62-day layoff and turned in commendable performance to finish second. Expect him to move forward in the Kentucky Derby for Bobby Frankel.
THE CLIFF'S EDGE - Trainer Nick Zito saddled Strike the Gold to a resounding victory in the 1991 Blue Grass (G1) and then captured the Kentucky Derby three weeks later. Strike the Gold wasn't a world-beater either, dropping his next 12 starts, so Zito knows how to get a three-year-old to peak for two straight races at this time of the year. A two-time stakes winner at Churchill Downs, The Cliff's Edge enters the Derby on the upswing.
Fringe candidates
CASTLEDALE - Smallish colt was a game winner of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in only his second dirt start and will be running late at Churchill.
IMPERIALISM -Caught on the rail through the stretch in the Santa Anita Derby, the gray colt does his best running on the outside and will be kept wide for the stretch run in the Kentucky Derby. He moved way up when transferred to the care of Kristin Mulhall over the winter, but 1 1/4 miles doesn't look promising with his pedigree.
POLLARD'S VISION - Wouldn't leave him out of the exotics, but the improving colt will be seriously tested for class and won't get the easy early lead he enjoyed in the Illinois Derby (G2).
SMARTY JONES - He's done everything right so far, dominating his competition in last two Arkansas starts with a dazzling turn of foot, but 10 furlongs represents a major obstacle for the Pennsylvania-bred colt. Could still envision a scenario where he makes the lead at the top of the stretch and holds on, but Smarty Jones is more likely to taste defeat for the first time.
Traditionalist nightmare
FRIENDS LAKE - Unproven colt wins the Florida Derby in a slow time and trains up to the Kentucky Derby - brilliant strategy for finishing up the track.
MINISTER ERIC - Been knocking heads with entry-level allowance foes and finally broke through with a win last time at Keeneland. Quality isn't the only concern with his 4.14 dosage.
READ THE FOOTNOTES - Won't be fit enough. Fitness equates to races, not workouts, and the idea of training a young three-year-old into a 1 1/4-mile dirt race against 19 challengers off a seven-week rest is preposterous. Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed would have all probably lost the Kentucky Derby without an April prep race.
SONG OF THE SWORD - Didn't finish strongly in both the Lexington S. (G2) and Illinois Derby, suggesting he won't advance at longer distances, and the unraced at two-year-old has been pushed hard to make the race. Don't look for his best in his third start in six weeks.
TAPIT - Mad genius or not, Tapit will not win the Kentucky Derby. Eighty-five years and counting since the last time a horse won the Kentucky Derby with less than five career starts and the gray colt has had only one true performance in 2004, a huge effort in the Wood. He was recuperating from a lung problem going into the race and it had to take a lot out of him. With little bottom, he's not moving forward at 1 1/4 miles. At least we won't have to see Michael Dickinson grandstanding afterward that he only hoped to finish third and didn't have Tapit at his best yet.
WIMBLEDON - Makes this category based on dosage (5.00). Despite that number, it's difficult to make a case for him off a poor showing in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Looked better at two
ACTION THIS DAY - Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) hero has not gone on at three and reportedly exited the Blue Grass with a sore back.
BIRDSTONE - With his pedigree, a Future Bet would've been ideal following his superb victory in the Champagne S. (G1). This year has been a nightmare, however, with a terrible performance in the Lane's End (G2) and subsequent withdrawal from the Blue Grass due to an elevated white blood cell count.
Pretenders
LIMEHOUSE - He owns plenty of quality for middle distances.
QUINTONS GOLD RUSH - Lexington was not in this colt's plans until an unplaced finish in the Santa Anita Derby, and he got a dream trip on a soft pace against a less-than-stellar group of rivals. Won't last 10 furlongs at Churchill.
Stay home
ST AVERIL - Failed miserably in Santa Anita Derby. Why risk the future of a nice colt with bad feet in such a demanding race?
